Global Tremor Score
critical427 signals ingested in the last 24 hours across 3 active domains. Highest convergence: California, United States at 100/100.
Clusters 24h
6
Open outlooks
6
Brier score
—
n=0
Convergence
Where signals from independent domains overlap in space and time.
California, United States
3 signals · formed 13 minutes ago
100
criticalCalifornia, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California; Extreme Heat Watch — 2 active NWS alerts in California; 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).
Sudan (nationwide)
6 signals · formed 13 minutes ago
100
criticalSudan (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Sudan: coverage of coercive events 3.333σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Sudan (military); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 6.838σ above its 14-day baseline across 47 articles, led by Sudan; Sudan: coverage of coercive events 4.282σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Civilian (civilians); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 2.773σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Sudan.
Somalia (nationwide)
3 signals · formed 13 minutes ago
100
criticalSomalia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.05× convergence multiplier to a base score of 94.81. Contributing signals: Somalia: coverage of coercive events 27.451σ above its 14-day baseline across 160 articles, led by Minneapolis; Somalia: coverage of coercive events 4.49σ above its 14-day baseline across 27 articles, led by Minneapolis; 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).
Namibia (nationwide)
3 signals · formed 14 minutes ago
100
criticalNamibia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.18× convergence multiplier to a base score of 84.56. Contributing signals: Namibia: coverage of coercive events 5.866σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Namibia; Namibia: coverage of coercive events 3.873σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Government (government); 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).
Iowa, Minnesota and 3 more, United States
17 signals · formed 14 minutes ago
100
criticalIowa, Minnesota and 3 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flood Warning — 5 active NWS alerts in Iowa; Freeze Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Minnesota; United States: coverage of coercive events 10.348σ above its 14-day baseline across 2123 articles, led by United States (legislature); Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Illinois.
Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more
14 signals · formed 13 minutes ago
100
criticalSwitzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Switzerland: coverage of coercive events 10.077σ above its 14-day baseline across 52 articles, led by Switzerland; France: coverage of coercive events 3.479σ above its 14-day baseline across 73 articles, led by French (police); France: coverage of coercive events 1.703σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by France (education); Italy: coverage of coercive events 2.096σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Egyptian.
Open outlooks
Probabilistic, resolvable and permanently logged the moment they are published.
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of NU in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of BF in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of India in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of Israel in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of China in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 50 km of Ghana in the next 12 months.
Window closes in 11 months · 2027-08-14 16:34 UTC
84%
76–92%
Latest signals
- 32
Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C
- 44
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38 °C
- 32
Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C
- 45
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38.3 °C
- 56
Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Iowa
- 64
Extreme Heat Watch — 2 active NWS alerts in California
- 67
Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California
- 55
Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 40.4 °C
Calibration
No resolved predictions yet.
Open the scorecardDaily Brief
Latest brief published 2026-09-01 06:00 UTC with a score of 100/100.
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