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100critical

Global Tremor Score

critical

427 signals ingested in the last 24 hours across 3 active domains. Highest convergence: California, United States at 100/100.

Clusters 24h

6

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6

Brier score

—

n=0

Convergence

Where signals from independent domains overlap in space and time.

All signals

California, United States

3 signals · formed 13 minutes ago

100

critical
AtmosphericEconomic

California, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California; Extreme Heat Watch — 2 active NWS alerts in California; 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).

Sudan (nationwide)

6 signals · formed 13 minutes ago

100

critical
EconomicGeopolitical

Sudan (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Sudan: coverage of coercive events 3.333σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Sudan (military); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 6.838σ above its 14-day baseline across 47 articles, led by Sudan; Sudan: coverage of coercive events 4.282σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Civilian (civilians); Sudan: coverage of coercive events 2.773σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Sudan.

Somalia (nationwide)

3 signals · formed 13 minutes ago

100

critical
EconomicGeopolitical

Somalia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.05× convergence multiplier to a base score of 94.81. Contributing signals: Somalia: coverage of coercive events 27.451σ above its 14-day baseline across 160 articles, led by Minneapolis; Somalia: coverage of coercive events 4.49σ above its 14-day baseline across 27 articles, led by Minneapolis; 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).

Namibia (nationwide)

3 signals · formed 14 minutes ago

100

critical
EconomicGeopolitical

Namibia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.18× convergence multiplier to a base score of 84.56. Contributing signals: Namibia: coverage of coercive events 5.866σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Namibia; Namibia: coverage of coercive events 3.873σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Government (government); 10y-2y curve at 0.46 (-0.476σ vs trailing year).

Iowa, Minnesota and 3 more, United States

17 signals · formed 14 minutes ago

100

critical
AtmosphericEconomicGeopolitical

Iowa, Minnesota and 3 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flood Warning — 5 active NWS alerts in Iowa; Freeze Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Minnesota; United States: coverage of coercive events 10.348σ above its 14-day baseline across 2123 articles, led by United States (legislature); Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Illinois.

Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more

14 signals · formed 13 minutes ago

100

critical
EconomicGeopolitical

Switzerland (nationwide), France (nationwide) and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Switzerland: coverage of coercive events 10.077σ above its 14-day baseline across 52 articles, led by Switzerland; France: coverage of coercive events 3.479σ above its 14-day baseline across 73 articles, led by French (police); France: coverage of coercive events 1.703σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by France (education); Italy: coverage of coercive events 2.096σ above its 14-day baseline across 21 articles, led by Egyptian.

Open outlooks

Probabilistic, resolvable and permanently logged the moment they are published.

Full ledger

Latest signals

Live feed
  • 32

    Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C

    AtmosphericDelhi, Indiasource
  • 44

    Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38 °C

    AtmosphericRiyadh, Saudi Arabiasource
  • 32

    Extreme heat forecast at Delhi, India — 35.5 °C

    AtmosphericDelhi, Indiasource
  • 45

    Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 38.3 °C

    AtmosphericRiyadh, Saudi Arabiasource
  • 56

    Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Iowa

    AtmosphericIowa, United Statessource
  • 64

    Extreme Heat Watch — 2 active NWS alerts in California

    AtmosphericCalifornia, United Statessource
  • 67

    Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California

    AtmosphericCalifornia, United Statessource
  • 55

    Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 40.4 °C

    AtmosphericRiyadh, Saudi Arabiasource

Calibration

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Daily Brief

Latest brief published 2026-09-01 06:00 UTC with a score of 100/100.

Read 2026-09-01

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